AAOI long from averaging up since $28; expects doubling or tripling on AI demand for transceivers
Demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers imminent; major bottleneck expected H1 2027; unexpected price hikes and margin expansion
$AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28. Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute? There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers… Then this company is targeting the largest capacity in the US, with extreme vertical integration. I think something to keep in mind is sovereign DCs / T2 AI DCs which increase the demand for 800g as hyperscalers upgrade to 1.6T. So demand for 800g can actually keep increasing… Then there’s the analyst rumors of $AAOI conversations with $AMD / $NVDA. Which is kinda expected given everyone is getting their capacity allocated way into 2028. Nvidia always starts first and causes bottlenecks for everyone else as seen with EML, so not surprising if another hyperscaler learned their lesson this time? Also, everyone seems to be modeling lower ASP at scale. But if this ends up a major bottleneck H1 next year as expected… Could see unexpected price hikes + margin expansion across the board from $AAOI, $LITE, and others not really modeled in.
| Horizon | Raw move | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | +5.1% | +4.9% |
| 1 week | +9.7% | +9.1% |
| 1 month | +18.4% | +16.5% |
| 3 months | — | — |
| 6 months | — | — |