The analyst outlines a thematic ETF portfolio with both long and short positions across multiple assets, anticipating a severe geopolitical crisis impacting markets.
Positions are based on expected market reactions to a US ground troop deployment to Iran and subsequent regional destruction, affecting private market liquidity, oil prices, tech stocks, volatility, and Nvidia specifically.
The Serenity Doomsday ETF: 25% | $FAZ 25% | $GUSH 20%| $LCID Short 10% | $SQQQ 10% $UVIX 10% | $NVDA Puts Rationale: $FAZ / 3x short financial - Private Market liquidity play on Middle Eastern capital abandoning private markets if all their oil fields get blown apart. $GUSH / 2x Long US OIl and Gas - Global crude prices that will likely skyrocket, and American producers reap record windfall in profits. $SQQQ / 3x short Nasdaq - Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft forced selling if liquidity gets pulled. $LCID Short / 60% owned by Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund. If the Saudis suffer from liquidity shock, there goes Lucid. $UVIX/ 2x long volatility - If there's black swan events, volatility goes up. $NVDA Puts - Last bastion for the $SPY as largest weighting. If capex gets pulled, index sells off will Nvidia go down the hardest. I only see this scenario if US sends ground troops to Iran and Iran blows everything around it up. Let's pray for Taco Tuesday.
| Horizon | Raw move | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| 1 week | -26.5% | -30.7% |
| 1 month | -47.7% | -60.9% |
| 3 months | -67.3% | -82.6% |
| 6 months | — | — |