JBL is compelling long idea at $38B market cap; pluggable transceiver business with SIVE bottleneck expected to drive rerating H1 2027.
JBL has 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver business underpriced; took over INTC pluggable lines; massive supply chains with SIVE bottleneck; scalable vs AAOI capex model. 40% rerating possible H1 2027.
Just a random thought: $JBL seems highkey compelling long idea at $38B. Don’t really think markets have priced in their 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver business yet. Especially if it’s “how much can you make” with $SIVE as the bottleneck H1 2027. Not really is there enough demand. They already have the massive supply chains setup… and took over $INTC pluggable lines. Seems more scalable than $AAOI capex ATMs for laser fabs, if you have $SIVE + tons of different fabs like Win Semi + others mass producing lasers and $JBL doing the rest. So you’re getting that Innolight style setup for free (with US premiums), with an already validated hyperscaler supply chain. Don’t currently have positions, just throwing out a thought for others to do research on. Prob H1 2027 is when everyone starts realizing. Maybe 40% rereating seems plausible? (dont have any open positions, just a thought)
| Horizon | Raw move | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | -2.8% | -1.2% |
| 1 week | +3.6% | +1.8% |
| 1 month | -8.2% | -10.2% |
| 3 months | — | — |
| 6 months | — | — |