The analyst sees short-term parabolic upside for LPK and long-term higher upside for XFAB if it leads European photonic supply chains and builds a TSEM alternative.
Equipment suppliers switching from qualification to volume production tend to get re-rated to higher market caps; XFAB has potential to lead European photonic supply chains and build a TSEM alternative with MTP, indicating higher long-term upside.
So short term ramp, I see $LPK probably might be more parabolic. Since when equipment suppliers switch from qualification to volume production as seen with $AEHR or $AIXA recently, they tend to get re-rated to $3-7B MCs. But 99% are structurally more capped on where they head. Long term, I personally see $XFAB has much much higher upside if they're able able to lead European's photonic supply chains and build out a $TSEM alternative with MTP. But are earlier on in the process.
| Horizon | Raw move | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| 1 week | -21.1% | -19.1% |
| 1 month | -28.3% | -28.0% |
| 3 months | — | — |
| 6 months | — | — |