Retrospective analysis of high-conviction positions from 2025 that validated well; reflection on thesis evolution and supply chain chokepoints.
Thesis centered on Mag7 funneling revenue into semiconductor/supply chain companies; identified structural bottlenecks (optical transitions, substrate supply); entry positions in small-cap companies that matured significantly
Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.
| Horizon | Raw move | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | +6.7% | +4.9% |
| 1 week | -2.1% | -2.4% |
| 1 month | -25.1% | -26.1% |
| 3 months | — | — |
| 6 months | — | — |