SIVE favorite CPO/photonics stock (#1 before AAOI); TAM grows $0 to $91B H2 2026-2028; shorts underwater
CPO applications scaling from H2 2026; massive TAM inflection (10x in 18 months); GFS reference laser adoption; pluggable market with JBL
$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI. Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there. Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air. To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary. Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser. (Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth) Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all. So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater). But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now). Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too. Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE. Just a matter of time before volume ramps.
| Horizon | Raw move | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | +2.4% | +2.1% |
| 1 week | +7.7% | +7.2% |
| 1 month | -8.8% | -10.6% |
| 3 months | — | — |
| 6 months | — | — |