The analyst is bullish on photonics and CW laser-related stocks like AAOI, AMD, LITE, NVDA, SIVE, SOI, and TSEM, expecting significant growth driven by bottlenecks and long-term agreements in the market.
The analyst draws parallels to the past growth of LITE driven by Nvidia-induced bottlenecks and architectural changes, sees a similar pattern emerging with CW lasers and optical components, supported by large TAM projections and long-term agreements, making these stocks strategically valuable.
IMO photonics theme + CW laser chokepoint is goated. It's legit like markets have short term memory loss and forgot how $LITE went from $3B -> $65B+ from 2024 to now. Because $NVDA caused EML bottlenecks, and forced architectural changes. We're literally seeing the same thing today with CW lasers + 1.6T/CPO shifts with Nvidia signing LTAs everywhere. Now, $AMD + other CSPs are hunting for remaining scraps with large LTAs for CW lasers + optical components. GS Research's ~9-10x $154B optical TAM in 2028 and near $0 -> $91B CPO TAM in just 2 1/2 years. Don't just magically disappear from a month of trading volatility. $AAOI sitting at ~$13B, $SIVE sitting at ~$3B, and other CW laser players look strategically very valuable. And next year I think we'll look back and say "Why didn't I learn my lesson the first time with EML from Nvidia and pick up CW laser adjacent names!" Then there's likely gonna be some new mini trend 1-2 years from now like microled or quantum dot and we're gonna see the same thing repeat. Think Sumitomo's projections with CW laser share + silicon photonics being majority / dominant architecture should be correct. I'm personally just focusing on that bottleneck as you've seen with $SOI, $TSEM, $SIVE, and others.
| Horizon | Raw move | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| 1 week | +0.0% | -1.8% |
| 1 month | +4.4% | +3.7% |
| 3 months | — | — |
| 6 months | — | — |