The analyst expects AMD to have a favorable revenue guidance increase and strong server CPU growth, maintaining a competitive advantage over Intel through 2026, indicating a bullish stance on AMD.
AMD's supply is less constrained than Intel's; AMD server CPU expected to grow 80% this year with units up 40-45% and pricing up 20%; AMD's CPU portfolio compares favorably to Intel's; Intel's guidance implies under shipment, benefiting AMD.
Citing UBS's AMD earnings preview: - The market is clearly aware that INTC's guidance reads very favorably for AMD. - This is particularly true for server CPU, given commentary implying that INTC is undershipping the market by roughly 20%. - The key question here is AMD's supply, but our field work throughout the quarter indicated that supply of INTC parts has been far more constrained than that of AMD parts. - We therefore see a very favorable setup for AMD and expect revenue to be guided up at least $1B Q/Q to the low $11B range (vs. Street consensus of ~$10.4B). - Intel's CY2026 outlook implies its Data Center & AI segment growing ~40% Y/Y, and we now see AMD server CPU growing as much as 80% this year, with units up ~40–45% and pricing up around 20%. - From a competitive standpoint, our checks remain constructive. AMD's CPU portfolio continues to compare favorably with Intel's offerings, and the lack of meaningful timeline updates for Diamond Rapids and Coral Rapids reinforces our view that AMD should maintain a competitive advantage across the x86 ecosystem through C2026. $INTC $AMD
| Horizon | Raw move | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | +5.2% | +4.2% |
| 1 week | +25.0% | +21.9% |
| 1 month | +53.1% | +46.8% |
| 3 months | +34.9% | +30.7% |
| 6 months | — | — |