Apple facing SoC supply constraints limiting shipments, not memory shortage. Memory costs rising significantly in 2Q.
TSMC leading-edge capacity is the actual bottleneck preventing Apple product shipments. Memory is a cost pressure but not a supply constraint. Demand for Mac mini/Studio stronger than expected due to AI. Memory prices rising sharply.
Thoughts from Apple’s earnings call: Memory does not seem to be the bottleneck preventing Apple from shipping products. Rather, it is a cost variable pressuring margins. In contrast, SoC / leading-edge node capacity appears to be the supply constraint that is actually limiting unit shipments. Apple seems to be able to secure enough memory. The issue is that it cannot ship enough products because it is not getting sufficient SoC supply due to tight TSMC leading-edge capacity. Mac mini and Mac Studio demand has been stronger than expected, as they are increasingly being recognized as strong platforms for AI and agentic tools. → There is currently no AI platform that can really match Apple’s unified memory architecture. Amkor bullish? Memory costs were already higher in the March quarter, and Apple expects significantly higher memory costs in the June quarter. → Memory prices are likely to rise even more sharply in calendar 2Q. If even Apple — arguably the strongest buyer in the world — is acknowledging memory cost pressure, then this cycle is not over yet. $AAPL
| Horizon | Raw move | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | -1.2% | -0.8% |
| 1 week | +4.7% | +2.3% |
| 1 month | +9.3% | +4.1% |
| 3 months | +19.0% | +16.1% |
| 6 months | — | — |