The analyst is bearish on Qualcomm, skeptical it can rebound meaningfully within the year due to challenges in delivering on-device AI without increased mobile DRAM.
Apple's partial walkback on WMCM packaging and lack of RAM upgrade in iPhone 18 high-end models suggests limitations in on-device AI capabilities; Qualcomm is unlikely to overcome these without an extraordinary breakthrough.
I’m skeptical that Qualcomm can stage a meaningful rebound within this year. Why did Apple choose to adopt WMCM packaging for the iPhone 18? It was precisely to enable the use of more DRAM for on-device AI. However, according to recent industry checks, even Apple appears to have walked back full-scale WMCM adoption for the iPhone 18 and decided to use it only in the higher-end lineup. Even in the high-end models that do use WMCM, there appears to be no RAM upgrade versus the previous generation. If even Apple — the company with the strongest buying power in the industry — is facing this reality, how exactly is Qualcomm supposed to deliver on-device AI? If Qualcomm can deliver on-device AI without additional mobile DRAM, that would imply it has achieved some extraordinary algorithmic breakthrough that bypasses the memory wall. I’m skeptical of that.
| Horizon | Raw move | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | +15.1% | +14.1% |
| 1 week | +23.4% | +20.3% |
| 1 month | +60.9% | +54.6% |
| 3 months | +4.4% | +0.3% |
| 6 months | — | — |