InP supply constraint theme benefits multiple stocks; analyst holds LITE/COHR/IQE as core positions with preference ranking; previously exited AXTI after profits.
China controls 70%+ of InP exports, creating supply scarcity. LITE has lower China beta, COHR has permit upside, IQE has asymmetry. AXTI risky on regulatory concerns despite InP revenue dominance.
China's control over InP exports threatens AI data centre rollout (Reuters). With 70%+ control over global output. Just as a reminder on beneficiaries: -> JX Advanced Metals: ~10% InP share -> $AXTI: InP >50% Q1'26 rev -> $LITE: maybe the cleanest large cap beneficiary -> $COHR: ~1 yr early to 6-inch InP production -> $IQE: InP is "material growth driver throughout 2026 and beyond" Sumitomo Electric win in non-Chinese InP but they're so huge that InP revenue is basically a rounding error to them. Personally treating $AXTI as a trading vehicle separately to my core hold rn after taking decent profits over the past few weeks. As core holds, I have preference to $LITE / $COHR / $IQE over $AXTI for InP-thematic exposure w/ less regulator risks. - $LITE for lower China supply beta. - $COHR for higher InP permit torque if u want it. - $IQE for the most asymmetry
| Horizon | Raw move | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | +7.5% | +5.7% |
| 1 week | +10.5% | +10.1% |
| 1 month | -20.2% | -21.2% |
| 3 months | — | — |
| 6 months | — | — |