$MSFT

Summary

The analyst plans to buy more Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and Broadcom through Q3-Q4, expecting compressed valuations in quality tech names to be rare going forward.

Reasoning

Valuations are currently compressed with forward P/E ratios expected to expand; specific growth and product ramp-ups (e.g., Vera Rubin for Nvidia, Maia for Microsoft, AI capex conversion for Meta, and ASIC ramp for Broadcom) support a bullish stance.

There is no stock market bubble. Large Cap Fwd P/E's (2027/28) & Analysis: $NVDA: 22.9x -> 16.1x $GOOGL: 24.8x -> 20.6x $MSFT: 20.2x -> 16.8x $AMZN: 24.2x -> 17.9x $META: 15.7x -> 13.8x $AVGO: 19.7x -> 16.2x Analysis: $NVDA: 16.1x (2028) on >40% growth is the market pricing a sharp deceleration. But Vera Rubin in full priduction + ramping in H2. Feel like the market is pricing in ASIC share erosion heading into 2028, but then you've got CPO coming soon. $GOOGL: The most priced to perfection on this list on cloud backlog + Search re-acceleration. But you've got things like TPUs, OCS + Jupiter fabric as a structural cost edge. Gemini too. $MSFT: Stupid cheap. Maia live in DCs for Copilot/foundry inference. Targeting ~50% of AI compute on own silicon by 2028. Rights to OAI's chip designs. $AMZN: Tough company to model margin trajectory on tbh. AWS acceleration + retail/advertising operating leverage make the earnings base the most optionality-driven & hardest to pin. And Trainium shipping, anchored by Anthropic. Plus at what point do robotics/automation start to ramp? $META: Very cheap due to a "trust discount" on their AI capex, not an earnings problem. If the capex visibly converts to revenue/margin, you get both EPS upside + multiple re-rating. $AVGO: Steep de-rating after their earnings report last week mainly because of ASIC ramp. On CPO, there's arguments to be made that Broadcom wins over Nvidia longer-term. Personally, I'll be buying Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta and Broadcom a little more heavily through Q3-Q4. I highly doubt we'll see such compressed valuations in quality tech names for a very long time. Caveat: 2028 PE's are via my own EPS modelling.

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