$APLD

Summary

The analyst constructed an equal-weight ETF of neocloud stocks (GLXY, WULF, CIFR, APLD) based on specific metrics and plans to buy more if prices dip significantly, or trim if higher conviction opportunities arise (e.g., SNDK, MU).

Reasoning

Selection based on counterparty quality, secured to energized schedule, EV/Total secured MW, and balance sheet capacity. Sector expected to outperform in H2 2026 and beyond due to contracted lease revenue flows warranting AI infrastructure multiples.

Equal-weight “Neocloud” ETF: 1. $GLXY 2. $WULF 3. $CIFR 4. $APLD These were the most compelling to me based on four metrics: 1. Counterparty quality (likelihood of cashflows) 2. Secured -> Energized gap & schedule (when does it start paying?) 3. EV / Total Secured MW 4. Balance sheet capacity It's very hard to pick a clear sector winner since every name ranks differently: > WULF are top for the Secured -> Energized schedule but have the weakest balance sheet. > Similarly, GLXY has the best balance sheet w/ low dilution risk, but they have some counterparty risk due to 100% concentration on $CRWV. > Then you've got $APLD who built around their CoreWeave exposure w/ a more diversified book now i.e. 200 MW hypserscaler agreements. That's basically the reasoning for constructing an ETF. Then looking into H2'26 and 2027+, my thinking is that the sector should continue to outperform since lease revenue flows around then. Which is where the cash flow becomes contracted + longer-dated, which warrants AI infra multiples rather than lower miner multiples. Will be fun to track how the ETF performs over time though (dollar amount is for illustrative purposes only). Disclosure: The ETF forms a fairly small portion of my wider portfolio given how violent the betas are. If we see significant dips (>10%) then I'll buy more, if not, I'll let it compound. If I need cash for more compelling/higher conviction buys (e.g. a $SNDK / $MU dip), then I'll likely trim the ETF.

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