High-quality AI semiconductor stocks will appreciate over multi-year horizon due to hyperscaler capex growth; advises steady accumulation on dips rather than emotional selling.
Hyperscaler capex going up massively drives demand for AI supply chain names like NVDA, TSM, AMD (cemented in multi-year theses). Upcoming macro catalysts (CPI June 10, FOMC June 16-17, MU earnings June 24) may create short-term volatility but don't change long-term thesis.
Just to ease some market anxiety: All of the high quality AI stocks will go higher over the next few years: E.g. $NVDA, $TSM, $AMD type names that are all cemented in multi-year theses. Hyperscaler capex going up massively = these supply chain names will benefit. For a 30,000 ft view, it's that simple. So, diamond hands strategy: Just chill + buy more steadily on these dips if you can. If not, then I most certainly would not realise any losses/profits rn, since no one knows how the market will react short-term. Unless...you're so emotionally charged rn e.g. if you bought at the top. Then you may wanna take some money off the table if it'll give you some relief. But, be honest with yourself: If you're owning high beta stocks like $SNDK, $MU, $SIVE, $AAOI etc. for a quick momentum trade...then the reason you owned them is probably now broken? For a TLDR on upcoming macro catalysts: -> CPI (June 10): inflation -> rates -> valuation multiple channel -> FOMC (Jun 16-17): Hawkish = maybe favour EPS compounders & bottlenecks over story stocks. Dovish surprise = re-risk the broader SOX. -> $MU (Jun 24): reaffirming sold out status, locked pricing & guidance raise all de-risk the broader memory thesis. So if you decide to take come capital off the table rn, I'd wait until these macro events incl. IPOs e.g. SpaceX have been fully digested by the market. No idea when the bottom will be in...mechanical selling (CTA, VaR, momentum, short-gamma) can run from days to weeks. And can overshoot fundamentals. --- Just a v. v. high level framework for beginners mainly. I would also definitely avoid leverage/options type products rn too unless you're an expert trader.
| Horizon | Raw move | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| 1 week | +11.6% | +9.5% |
| 1 month | +12.6% | +11.0% |
| 3 months | — | — |
| 6 months | — | — |