The analyst predicts that $PS and $SPCX will experience a pullback after their IPOs, typically making a lower low below the IPO price, advising against chasing IPO opens unless trading in and out quickly.
After an IPO, a strong start is followed by an ABC bounce (3 waves), then a pullback in 5 waves that usually makes a lower low below the IPO price; Ackman's attempt to pump $PS was a bad move unless he sold.
$PS IPO in April is very typical of what happens after an IPO Strong start that bounces in an ABC, which is 3 waves, when this happens, we know that a pull back will come in 5 waves next and typically makes a lower low below the IPO price Ackman tried to pump this himself with his own money which was of course a terrible move unless he sold and I doubt he did. So never chase an IPO open unless you are in and out. $SPCX will move the same way.
| Horizon | Raw move | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | -3.6% | -4.3% |
| 1 week | -19.4% | -18.4% |
| 1 month | -35.4% | -35.7% |
| 3 months | — | — |
| 6 months | — | — |