Upstream semi suppliers to benefit from $5.3T+ hyperscaler capex through 2030
Massive hyperscaler capex expansion flows to supply chain chokepoints like optical and photonics
Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher. Goldman now expects a combined $5.3 trillion of capex spending for the four largest hyperscalers $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN from 2025 to 2030. Revised up from $4.5T from Q1 earnings. “Aggregate capex est. $7.6 trillion between 2026 and 2031.” And it flows upward to these tiny chokepoints like $SIVE for CPO lasers/ $SOI for Silicon Photonics substrates. Leaderdrive/Harmonic for Humanoids components. And so on… Ai names don’t move in a straight line up, but is just the beginning of the next Industrial Revolution as we move from R&D/compute buildout into commercialization from Agents -> Physical AI -> discovery.
| Horizon | Raw move | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | -5.5% | -2.9% |
| 1 week | -9.4% | -6.9% |
| 1 month | -4.3% | -3.6% |
| 3 months | — | — |
| 6 months | — | — |