The analyst advises against going long on IREN until the ATM selling pressure ends and dilution occurs, implying a bearish stance. Similarly, they suggest a bearish view on VCX due to its high valuation relative to NAV of SpaceX.
IREN has $6B in new selling pressure from ATM shares against an $11B market cap, creating structural overhang. VCX is trading at 2000% NAV of SpaceX, making the valuation unsustainable.
With $IREN, you have $6B in newly minted selling pressure. This ATM is structural overhang in any rally. If the marketcap is $11 Billion and they're selling up to $6,000,000,000 worth of new shares against you in the open market. I would not go long until the ATM is finished and existing holders get diluted. Same with $VCX, if you're trading at 2000% NAV of SpaceX (valued at $34 Trillion), eventually the math will work against you.
| Horizon | Raw move | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| 1 week | +6.3% | +2.0% |
| 1 month | -23.4% | -36.6% |
| 3 months | -26.5% | -41.9% |
| 6 months | — | — |