The analyst warns that $VCX ETF is trading at an extreme premium to NAV and likens it to a greater fool theory, suggesting a bearish stance on $VCX.
$VCX is trading at roughly 20x its NAV, implying a 1500-2000% premium, with underlying assets like SpaceX and OpenAI valued at unrealistic multiples compared to $META. The ETF has low float and lacks hedging options, making it risky to buy.
Warning about $VCX. A very popular ETF with weighting toward (Anthropic, Databricks, OpenAI, Anduril, and SpaceX). Ask yourself this: Is SpaceX is worth 23 times $META valuation? With the stock going up 1288% this month: VCX is trading at roughly ~20x its NAV. So 1500-2000% premium? This is like buying SpaceX at 34 Trillion USD. Or OpenAI at 16 Trillion USD. Would you short it? No: It's extremely low float and lack of options for hedging. But should you buy into it? $VCX looks like greater fools theory right now and you’re playing hot potato.
| Horizon | Raw move | vs SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 1 day | -34.0% | -32.3% |
| 1 week | -56.9% | -58.5% |
| 1 month | -67.6% | -78.4% |
| 3 months | -68.3% | -82.0% |
| 6 months | — | — |