$POET

EXIThigh conviction
10 May 2026, 10:58 UTC
Outcome
-22.5%
1-month return
-22.2%
vs SPY (1m)
Asset classstock
Post typeposition
Horizonunspecified

Summary

The analyst exited their position in POET at break-even due to management issues and a significant order cancellation by Marvell. They also trimmed about 50% of their holding in TSEM to rotate elsewhere.

Reasoning

POET faced a huge order cancellation by Marvell impacting its already small revenue; the analyst lacks patience for incompetent management and regrets taking a position, leading to an exit. For TSEM, the analyst trimmed holdings due to concerns about foundry exposure and to rotate elsewhere.

Original tweet

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Earnings next week for across sectors like semis, space, and power. Companies like $NBIS, $ASTS, and $PLUG all report. I think we’re all looking forward to hearing from $POET’s CFO too? TLDR Summary: Monday: $ASTS: scheduled June SpaceX launches (addressing prior delays) + fresh defense contracts incl. U.S. Missile Defense Agency SHIELD program + recent partnership momentum w/ AT&T, Verizon & Vodafone. The only real negative has been launch execution risk from recent BlueBird 7 setback. Fresh delays / funding concerns could pressure valuation short term. $HIMS: last quarter was huge ($2.35B rev = +59% YoY). Since then: launched Novo Nordisk branded GLP-1’s after legal settlement + heavy institutional buying. Short interest still high at ~35%. Key signals are: subscriber growth past 2.5M, GLP-1 traction without margin erosion + raise of the FY $2.7-2.9B rev guide. $CRCL: riding momentum from Q4 - rev up 77% YoY ($770M) & solid EPS beat. Since then: new institutional payment platforms launched + expanded African partnerships. Tailwinds from potential U.S. stablecoin legislation + diversification into services. Valuation is way too high rn for me to consider, especially w/ risks in crypto sentiment / margin pressure. $PLUG: Recent narrative has been mixed: services & hydrogen rev growth + DOE loan progress are the positives. But high cash burn, capex needs + seasonal Q1 weakness are the downsides. GM sustainability/expansion, backlog conversion (e.g. Canada wins), liquidity updates + explicit confirmation of the 2026 path to positive EBITDA are all crucial. Tuesday: ChipMOS: shown strong momentum recently after weak 2025 - Customer demand visibility now extends past 2026: Q1 results tracking strong MRR, improving utilization/margins + sustained AI tailwinds into the full year. $SATL: recently signed $12M sovereign defense contract + expanded defense/intel sales team. Still a small base but the AI Earth-observation thesis needs clear rev acceleration, backlog wins, Merlin constellation progress (Oct 2026 target), and cash discipline. $CAMT: don’t think there’s many updates apart from recent Visual Layer acquisition to bolster inspection capabilities? As with most AI supply chain names, you’d want: strong backlog/orders, + clear pipeline visibility. Wednesday: $NBIS: Eigen AI acquisition + hyperscaler deployments ( $MSFT / $META) have enhanced the AI-infra narrative. To justify premium neocloud valuation: Q1 rev/ARR progress, capacity-ramp updates, Eigen integration traction. Hyperscaler execution + backlog conversion would reinforce the 5x+ growth story. $TSEM: Would be looking for healthy customer mix (RF/power/SiGe) + AI comments. Fab-loading strength would confirm a durable cycle, but weakness would highlight foundry exposure. I personally trimmed ~50% of my holding over the last month to rotate elsewhere. Thursday: $POET: order cancellation by $MRVL was huge for them since rev is already tiny. So to offset that, they’d need to signal Malaysia production ramp confirmation + any new hyperscaler wins. Visible revenue inflection + backlog would validate the shift to commercialization. Personally don’t have patience for incompetent management (regret taking a position), so sold out of my position at break-even after that whole Marvell fiasco.

Return by horizon

1d
+0.0%
1w
+2.2%
1m
-22.5%

Price performance

HorizonRaw movevs SPY
1 day+0.0%+0.0%
1 week+2.2%+2.3%
1 month-22.5%-22.2%
3 months
6 months
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Confidence 95% · classified by openai/gpt-4.1-mini