$POET

Summary

The analyst took positions in POET during Q1 but is now exiting due to management issues and loss of a key customer, considering it their worst trade of the year.

Reasoning

Management disclosed confidential info causing loss of trust; Marvell cancelled orders; high dilution history; cash runway sufficient but management concerns remain; CFO's actions damaged anchor customer relationship.

There's way too much drama with $POET currently: Just look at how $MRVL cancelled all their orders including initial production units that $POET had been trumpeting since around 2023. Their CFO fumbled the bag massively by disclosing confidential info in some random interview. To me, when a C-suite member does shady sh!t like that, it usually signals that the whole company is a mess top-down. On top of this, you've had crazy levels of dilution over the past few years too. You never know if they'll dilute again, but: I think dilution could potentially ease up now tbh just by looking at current cash of $430M + $400M May raise which gives them a few years runway at ~$9M / quarter cash burn. So they should (in theory lol) be able to fund a proper capacity expansion in Asia. But with their management, who knows... I did end up taking positions during Q1 mainly because of the $MRVL / Celestial light sources ties + CPO ramp timelines as an ELS supplier. But the CFO just screwed it all up when $MRVL was meant to be their anchor customer for the next few years at least. Probably my worst trade of the year tbh.

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