$CRWV

Summary

The analyst ranks large and mega cap tech stocks by tiers based on Q1 earnings and forward-looking AI and backlog momentum, indicating a bullish stance on top-tier names like SNDK and GOOGL and generally positive views on others with some caution on lower tiers.

Reasoning

The analyst uses criteria including financials, forward visibility (backlog/bookings, AI momentum, multi-year LTAs), segment/AI relevance, and market cap context to assess companies. SNDK and GOOGL have strong multi-year LTAs and AI-driven backlog growth, AMD and PLTR show strong pipeline and guidance, while others have varying degrees of momentum and risks.

Large & Mega Cap Tech Tier List: Following on from Q1 Earnings. S Tier: $SNDK / $GOOGL A Tier: $AMD / $PLTR / $META / $ARM B Tier: $AMZN / $MSFT C Tier: $AAPL / $MELI F Tier: $CRWV Criteria: 1. Financials: rev mix, margin expansion & B/S positioning. 2. Fwd visibility: backlog/bookings, AI specific momentum & multi-year LTAs. 3. Segment/AI relevance: performance in high-growth areas (AI infra, cloud, semis) vs. legacy/consumer drag. 4. MC context: high-growth names get more credit for beating on AI ramps while steady compounders need clean execution. Criteria tilt towards forward looking aspects like (a) backlog/segment momentum (b) AI supercycle tailwinds. *Very* high level notes: [S Tier] $SNDK: Best earnings of the bunch imo. Multi year hyperscaler LTAs extend into 2028. NAND backlog locks in premium pricing + capacity through to 2027. DC momentum accelerated sharply, now driving >60% of the fwd pipeline w/ 233% QoQ growth. Clear NAND supercycle winner. [S Tier] $GOOGL: Google Cloud backlog 2x’d to $462B. Gemini enterprise LTAs are visible for years fwd. Search/YouTube distribution + Gemini = Google outpace pure play hyperscalers on enterprise adoption + monetization speed. [A Tier] $AMD: MI350/MI400 pipelines sold out into 2027. New hyperscaler LTAs + design wins position DC as primary driver. [A Tier] $PLTR: Raised FY2026 guidance to 71% growth (U.S. commercial to 120%+). Visible backlog momentum into 2027 driven by over 200 deals >$1M. [A Tier] $META: FY capex increased to $125-145B = confidence in AI infra LTAs + advertiser commitments. Llama can add developer lock-in. Pipeline is mainly all ads rather than pure infra, w less quantified backlog than cloud/memory for example. [A Tier] $ARM: >$2B in new CPU hyperscaler LTAs & DC royalties expected to 2x again = high-visibility licensing growth into 2027+. Fwd royalty momentum is excellent. Smartphone seasonality potentially acts as a drag on near-term ramps? [B Tier] $AMZN: AWS acceleration + AI services pipeline = solid momentum. Anthropic commitments add multi-year visibility. Overall balanced execution in a large-base environment means they’re a solid compounder. [B Tier] $MSFT: Hard to get excited tbh. Azure/Copilot ARR now at $37B w/ 123% growth. Similar to Amazon in a lot of ways - solid execution but no real standout momentum acceleration imo. [C Tier] $AAPL: Services hit a record but AI features like Apple Intelligence still v. early stage. They missed the boat as things stand. iPhone/Services lacks any exciting pipeline visibility of names in higher tiers. China cyclicality makes things a little uncertain too. [C Tier] $MELI: I was once very bullish, hence their inclusion here. Top-line has been growing since the dawn of time. But offset by margin contraction + heavy investments that pressured FCF outlook. No AI tailwinds to offset logistics/credit spend drag into 2027. [D Tier] $CRWV: Rising interest + capex intensity ($31-35B outlook) w/ leverage building. Backlog reached $100B but conversion + profitability path still uncertain imo. Highly levered bet on perfect execution. Better options out there like $NBIS imo.

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